I just have to smile at all the folks in different forums (specially Paizo) that said 4E would be a dud.
... the main assertion was that people would not abandon 3E wholesale for 4E. I think Paizo is proving they were right. .... They will hail their hot initial sales as proof of their success, but the real proof will be how well follow up books sell. .... I think if 30%, or so, are staying with 3E, the 4E market will cool down faster than the 3E market crashed. ....
Let's not overlook the new-blood factor. When I bought my DMG* using a gift certificate at a failry large gaming store not near me at all they had two
displays of 4th Edition in the store and both had them things, um, what are they called again? ...teenagers? Yeah, that's it. Both displays had two or three teenagers hovering around discussing the game. That's not me seeing purchases
...but buzz is good, and can translate well into purchases. I can remember hovering in just that way at that age, since I didn't have the disposable income to plunk down on anything I wanted at will.** But once I had the cash, I would. That'll be what makes or breaks 4th Edition, IMO.
As a sidebar to that vignette, apparently nerddom is alive and well in the younger generation. There was some kind of tournement starting when I was making my purchase. A young kid was going to be the time keeper but didn't have in his words, "a portable time keeping device". He and the guy behind the counter proceeded to go back and forth on was there such a "device" available and was it even needed if the guy at the counter could just keep an eye on the clock and holler back at the game room when time was up. Shamefully, I resisted the chance to mention that, in my day, we used to call those things "watches".
*My PHB was a gift.
**Still can't presently, as it turns out.